Predicting Satellite Passes with TLE

Predicting Satellite Passes with TLE

2024-05-25

To predict when a satellite will pass over a specific location, we need to understand how its orbit is described. For that, we use a standard called TLE, which is based on 6 physical parameters.

TLE (Two-Line Elements)

To figure out when a satellite will fly over us, we can use tools like SatDump, N2YO, or others. All of them rely on TLE (Two Line Elements), which are unique to each object orbiting Earth. NASA and NORAD regularly calculate these values (since orbits change) and publish them on databases like CelesTrak, which power our prediction tools.
Let’s take the TLE of NOAA 19 as an example:
NOAA 19 1 33591U 09005A 24285.49466946 .00000972 00000-0 54355-3 0 9997 2 33591 99.0340 342.4576 0013141 327.7681 32.2687 14.13153634808053
TLE
The second line is the one we care about because it’s what determines the object’s orbit. For the curious, these numbers are the foundation of the Orbital Mechanics website.

Inclination

Labeled i, it’s the angle of inclination (in °) of the orbital plane relative to the equatorial plane.
In blue, we have the Earth’s orbital plane, in orange, the satellite’s plane.
Orbital Mechanics Inclination
There are three types of inclination:
  • 0° ≤ i ≤ 90°: Prograde, where the orbit follows the same rotation direction as Earth (west to east).
  • 90° < i ≤ 180°: Retrograde, where the orbit is reversed (east to west).
  • i = 90°: Polar orbit, covering all latitudes.

Right Ascension of the Ascending Node

Labeled Ω, it’s the angle between the ascending node and the vernal equinox.

Ascending Node

The ascending node is the point where the satellite crosses the Earth’s orbital plane going "upward." The descending node is the opposite.

Vernal Equinox

The vernal equinox is essentially the ascending node of the Sun’s orbit relative to Earth.
Vernal Equinox Diagram

Right Ascension of the Ascending Node

It’s the angle between the ascending node and the vernal equinox.
Right Ascension Diagram
Okay, I’ll admit, this one’s the hardest to grasp, but check out what happens when we tweak this angle using Orbital Mechanics:
Orbital Mechanics Right Ascension

Semi-Major Axis

Labeled a, it represents half the major axis of an ellipse.
Semi-Major Axis Diagram
Here’s how the orbit changes when we adjust this value:
Orbital Mechanics Semi-Major Axis

Eccentricity

Labeled e, it measures the flattening of the ellipse.
For e = 0, the orbit is circular.
For 0 < e < 1, the orbit is elliptical (closed).
For e = 1, the trajectory is parabolic (open).
For e > 1, the trajectory is hyperbolic (open).
Eccentricity Diagram
Changing e:
Orbital Mechanics Eccentricity

Argument of Periapsis

Labeled ω, it’s the angle (in °) between the ascending node and the periapsis (the point in the orbit closest to the central body).
Argument of Periapsis Diagram
The periapsis is the point in the orbit where the satellite is closest to the body it’s orbiting. If the body is Earth, we call it perigee and apogee (perihelion and aphelion for the Sun). Let’s see what happens when we change this value:
Orbital Mechanics Argument of Periapsis

True Anomaly

Labeled 𝜈, it’s the angle (in °) between the periapsis and the satellite’s current position.
True Anomaly Diagram
So, to summarize:
  • The size and shape of the orbit are determined by the semi-major axis and eccentricity.
  • The orientation is defined by the inclination, right ascension of the ascending node, and argument of periapsis.
  • The satellite’s position is given by the true anomaly.
And that’s it, we made it to the end, CONGRATS 😎. Remember, we often use TLE because they allow us to predict when a satellite will pass over a specific location. For those who need another visual representation, there’s this awesome video.